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Closing Bell

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Us 16, Greece 15, S&p 9, China 7, Europe 7, America 5, Spain 5, Steve Grasso 4, John 4, Eu 4, Simon 4, Washington 4, Portugal 4, U.s. 3, Texas 3, San Antonio 3, Eric 3, Ubs 2, Stabile 2, Volcker 2,
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  CNBC    Closing Bell    News/Business. Daily stock  
   market analysis. (CC) (Stereo)  

    February 10, 2010
    3:00 - 4:00pm EST  

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all right we're here at the alammo in san antonio, texas. as we said, four of the fastest recovering cities in america, according to "forbes" here in texas and san antonio one of be retail or institutional. we take a long-term view. we believe in diversification and in serving your client's individual needs. it's not that hard 37 we don't try to trade day to day, simon. >> you're in a sector that's obviously under a huge. a tension from washington. >> yeah. >> you bank deposits almost swelled 300% from the ubs deal. how is that -- does that affect your strategy? do you look at clearly the volcker rule and think how will i move to take advantage of that or arguably this $30 billion consecutive year of record revenue. i don't think many financial services firm that could say they had record revenue earnings not only in 2009 but 2008. we've had quite a. >> 2009, client offices have been opened up during the course of the year. how are you going to appeal to the retail investor? what's the game here for you guys? >> the game -- i don't like to call it a game, but we deal with all of our clients, whether it
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them. one of of the biggest events going on right now is the san antonio rodeo. we spoke this morning on "squawk box" this morning. the biggest event, we hear, apparently extreme bull riding on saturday. the heart from the american economy, that there is some hiring and a lot of dynamism. the mayor told us that is hiring here. toyota has a second shift on that tundra that they recalled is beginning in march. here are to the green chutes and that may be coming down to the smaller banks, smaller medi medium-size business lending. >> i think that it is interesting. the volcker rule i think that a lot of people are attacking it, saying you cannot implement this. i think what most americans are looking for is a separation between insured deposits and some form of investment. we've had rules in place for 70 years. we've repealed many of those rules in the last ten years. and we need to look carefully at -- at that again. as it relates to us, our bank is croakuses from texas. time for the "closing bell." a major blizzard paralyzing the northeast. but heavy snow not putting a damp or wall street, as stocks erase the losses as we enter the homestretch of trading. live from the new york stock exchange, this is the final and most important hour of the trading day. and hi, everybody. there's a live picture of times square, new york city, where the snow is still coming down in new completely separate from our investment bank. there's no way that i can do any of the things that everyone seems to be talking about the volcker rule. >> do you see it as an opportunity? >> absolutely. >> all right. >> it's absolutely, because i think that as the markets restructure, they're going to come closer to what we do day to day versus what was done in the last five years. >> now a lot people would have woken up this morning and would have awoke and that a judge to reclaim five wisconsin school districts that allege that your
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york and there's a live picture inside of the new york stock exchange we're entering the final stretch of trading with the day on wall street. the blizzard just outside of us, part of the reason that we're seeing below-average volume on wall street. hi, everybody. i'm maria bartiromo. >> good afternoon, i'm simon hobbs as we say stocks pearing earlier losses in the session thanks to a lift in the financial sector. the strength of the dollar is putting a downward momentum coming into the final 60 minutes. where we are on the averagings, dow jones industrial was down 95 points. no big followthrough on bank actually misled people into -- or those bank school districts into investing $200 million into risky investments using borrowed money. does that keep you awake at night? i mean as a leader, how are you dealing with that sort of revelation and that sort of accusation? >> well, you know, first of all, we acted as placement agent. we did not structure or make the product. we advised on it. it was a aa rated security at yesterday's 150-point gauge. we'll hear later about the financials and whether or not it's a technical move p on the nasdaq, there you've seen, research in motion and dell, the stock not doing so well. on the s&p, just bear in mind that there, the 200-day moving average is at 1020. some the chattered today if we get down to that 1020 and then perhaps you should buy for a strong bounce, say some at least, moving onwards into the . >> yes, simon, a real mixed the time and i think that it underscores the problem that happened in structure finance. at the time, everyone thought that these things were safe and that they were good. and we certainly thought so. and it turned out not to be so. so, you know, to sit back and and you know something that was rated aa and is now not, it probably speaks to the time. individuals, a lot of people are saying what happened. we didn't manufacture that product.
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market today. financials are higher actually and energy is lower. get to our team covering markets right now, here at the nyse and the nymex and the floor of the semi group in chicago. bertha coombs kicks off. >> reporter: snow and uncertainty in europe that have put a tamper on trading today and kept volumes fairly low. the market has been watching every headline that comes out of what the eu is doing and how they are moving, trying to find a resolution, propping up the i'm confident that we did everything absolutely above board. >> mr. kruszewski, thank you very joining us and congratulations on the results. >> thank you. all right we have a market that's down about 16 points on the dow. about 25 minutes before the closing time and very much mixed situation. financials are holding up very well actually. coming up will yesterday's big-day rally just a one-day wonder? we'll find fout we're still on track to see gains moving forward when "closing bell" returns after the break. grecian debt crisis and something that we'll be watching over the next few days well into next week. bernanke's testimony was released this morning. on outlining an exit plan, the market pretty much took a slide. a lot of things that told about -- heard about. the 10-year auction did not go too well. rick santelli will have more on that, partly because of the low volume, because of the storm. as the storm's intensified here in the northeast i know that traders are concerned about getting home and we've seen volumes get lower.
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financials have been the standout all day and really moved us into positive territory midday. jpmorgan, bank of america very strong. and strong that perhaps metlife set to buy its alcoa unit. energy and materials have gone back and forth as the dollar has gone back and forth. dollar lost ground midday. we saw them gained and now they're losing again as the dollar is stronger got and also got disappointing outlooks from lothan mentel. the super markets, maybe one of the benefactors to watch as far as the storms. their stocks today are doing pretty well. a friend of mine sent me picture it is from washington area super market chains there, calling them, so be it, safe way. this is the chicken refrigerator and that's the produce aisles. look like they just have a few left there the. folks continue to stock up every time these storms move in. let's head on over now to the
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nasdaq and mike huckman. >> reporter: thanks, bertha and we're almost flat here at the nasdaq and at this level the nasdaq is struggling to remain just barely. the only one of the three major indices to actually be up so far this month, and to remain on pace at this early juncture of february 10th, to have its first winning february in years. and helping the nasdaq, crawling out of the relatively small hole today, are shares of google. well off the lows of the day as you can see, after the news broke on google's blog, of all places, that it is, at least, on a trial basis going to move into ultrahigh-speed broadband. shares of its main competitor, top competitors in china, baidu, hitting a new high today. up 11% right now on better than expected earnings. the same can be said for mi millicon. investors clearly have no reservations about opentable.com. that's the online restaurant reservation's site. again, better than expected
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earnings, and then on top of that, a price target raised by citi. the stock is up 23%. ahead of its earnings after the closing bell. we've got activision up 2% right now. moving onto upgrades, both dell and adobe systems upgraded to buy today. respectively, from bank of america and from jeffrey's and finally in biotech, sell gene up 2.5% because there are new guidelines for broader use of its blood cancer drug. and finally issa's pharmaceuticals down 18% trading at a new low today, a multiyear welcome back. 25 minutes before the closing bell sounds on wall street, and a very snowy day here in new york city pmt markets are mixed. we have a lot of strength in financial services actually. but the energy stocks are lower are as a number of economically low, because of side effect and safety concerns over a late-stage experimental cholesterol drug study. pharmasmarket.cnbc.com. >> reporter: oil prices turned around today, mike, and closed above $74 a barrel. we're getting more headlines about iran's plans to increase their uranium inrichment. they plan to do so and go ahead with their plan within days. keep in mind, we other than also getting report today, from the sensitive names that were actually higher yesterday. the stocks, like, coca-cola, chevron, gap all down on the session. dow jones industrials down 30 points as you can see here. off of the worst level was session, but off of the best as well. nasdaq also weaker by about five points. mixed situation within tech, ya hughes, google, amazon, ebay, apple all lower. simon, over to you. >> time for the "fast money's" final call. it was a good day today as maria said with some of those
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energy information administration, calling for oil prices to strengthen this spring, to average $81 a barrel in the second half of the year. the weekly report, though, that we get on oil inventories according to the energy department, will be delayed until friday at 11:00 a.m. meanwhile, there's still a lot of uncertainty in the currency markets, and that's what a lot of the commodity's traders are following as we wait for this european summit tomorrow. and also see whether or not we could see a pullback here in the dollar forecast eu actually gets financial, so what should you be taking? steve grasso joins me director of institutional shares. quite good news on some those financials? >> absolutely but you have to look at bigger picture. where they have come from since that silly bank tax was announced? they're all basically off 10%, 15%. and with goldman sachs at where that was, that was at $175, it's at 154. so a lot of ground to make up. even if they had a good day and mr. bernanke spoke, added some a plan here to bailout greece. paying very close to that. meanwhile, natural gas prices, yes, we have this winter storm that's blanketing the east coast but natural gas prices were only up marginally. why? well, there's plenty of natural gas in storage. in fact be, oops 7% higher than it was for the five-year average. and finally a quick look at metals. looking at lower price for gold and for silver. copper only up marginally, again, rick, a lot of tension's going to be paid to the foreign color to this situation, the problem is there's still a lot of green left. still a lot of unknowns to be dabbling there. >> obviously someone's buying it in this environment of. >> course. all good for a trade. look it, they've all jumped off of their 200-day moving averages. that's what traders look at. maybe they don't have off. pieces to the puzzles but what they can look atar the technicals and the tech cals are your friend in a lot of these stocks. all jumped from their 200-day moving averages. >> but would you re-enter?
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exchange markets tomorrow for the impact that they'll have on the commodity market. over to you. >> reporter: hey, foreign exchange markets are moving, and they're somewhat exciting. maybe not very for exciting reasons. but if you look at the beginning here today, the ten-year note auction didn't go well. call it two forces at work. weather forces, of course, as many customers and participants want to get home early, and what is going on in europe, you talked about. yields are at their highest level of the day. and look to see a little >> i don't think that i'd re-enter into the financials. i want to see a little more clarity on the bank regulation's side because i really need to know how deep this is going to hurt in the final plan. >> which way does the market go from here. >> well, right now in a very precarious spot, 1067. we're seven points away from support. and we're a couple of points away from resistance, so we're basically in no-man's-land at this point so i wouldn't be buying if. >> the 200 day moving average behind the s&p stands at 1020 or thereabouts. if, or as we approach that, is additional trading, say traders. second chart, eurocurrency, you could see it's down on the day. but it definitely is not at its worst level of the day as everybody tries to handicap. what kind of bailout or guaranteeies are around the corner for the likes of greece and maybe other countries? and the last chart, now this is a fun one, isn't it? this is a 10-year greek bond. and it took them nine whole sessions to go from over 7% back down to where they are now just that -- i see some comment that that's -- ahh, that's a real aggressive point to get in and we'll ride through a couple of months. nonsense? >> i think that it's probably nonsense because if we get to that level we're probably going lower. i think that we'll test the 1044 which is the recent low, initially. >> if we broke 1020, it's a very, very bad signal for the market, isn't it? >> yeah. i wouldn't -- nothing good about that at that point. i think then we go straight below a thousand on the s&p. i do think that we're going to
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above 6%. some say 6% never looked so good. hey idon't think that ride's over on these. the one final story that's out, you know there is big talk today that the fed's going to stop buying several things whether it's currencies or mortgages. on christmas eve when they took the shackles off of freddie and fannie. the news today, guess what, are going to step up purchases of delinquent blowns. we knew that one was coming. maria, back to you. >> yes we did. rick santelli, thanks so much. stocks are making up modest get to a thousand in the s&p. in a round-about way of answering your question i think that this market goes lower. >> okay, thanks for cheering me up, steve. better change my 401(k). >> you still have that going for you. as you said before, there are plenty of ways to trade the market and make money while it is zigzagginging across the board. >> like? >> well, could you always -- >> general -- >> general things that you could trade but always long tech. i think that energy is a good long-term play especially when we we see iran raising its head again. i think that energy plays could be a point to make money. losses today thanks to strength in the financial sector. on much to all of that we've got the fed story of course, bernanke wind things down. let's wind things up here and how you should be invested in this market as we look toward the rest the year. joining us is peter, equity strategist with miller tayback. gentlemen, nice to have you on the program and welcome you back. eric, kick this off with you. ben bernanke, detailing how the central bank will begin to wind things down. >> even in an environment that we're not sure what the dollar might be? >> even in an environment where you are not sure with the dollar and you have to be close to your computers. this is a trading man's market. not an investor's market unless your time horizon is looking five years, ten years down because we all know how the last ten years played out so you have to be a lot nimble than you were. >> including dividends on the s&p. >> right and that's a great point. i don't want to be stuck in etfs because etfs are basically dead money but if you had invested in apple you'd be up 700%.
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suggesting, of course, interest rates are going to go higher at some point, but first, debt is removing cash from the financial system before it turns to moving on rates. anything new from your standpoint? do you change your investment strategy based on what we heard from the fed today. >> no, but the things -- nothing from what we heard today, but just the indication that rates are going up sooner than most of us are expecting is a negative in my mind. taking liquidity out of the system which has been fuelling this upturn and the economy. that worries me. >> i read that he was -- >> do you hear many people around here that are positive at the moment? because i just, anecdotally, i keep hearing negative stuff from so many people. >> right. i think that there were guys that were positive, but i think that when government got to -- you know, too overreaching in the markets i think that's when we sold off. >> okay. >> remember, we had government, and china and we had sovereign debt. so now even if we handle sovereign debt still a lot unknowns. >> i see. thank you very much for that, steve grasso and on tonight's "fast money" darren kaminski actually should lay out the strategy way in advance so that nobody's surprised further down the line. >> well, he certainly has to do that at some level but he doesn't have to tell us what he is going to do in 2011. what he's going to do in second half of 2010, most are looking for a more robust recovery. interest rates in the latter half of the 2010, the end of the year. i was surprised. >> peter, what about you? do you do anything different in joins us to explain why bernanke's action may actually be good for the market and plus the best ways to plate global credit crisis using etfs. guest host bob pisani and the traders are live at 5:00. all right, simon, you know, look, steve grasso just said that the s&p going to 1,000, well right now last check 1,066 is where the s&p 500 is right now. he says it's going to 100. 20 minutes before the closing bell sounds on wall street. the market is lower here. the dow jones industrial
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terms of strategy based on what we heard from the fed and what's your thought, as far as 2010 in owning stock? >> well, overall, i don't think that really bernanke said anything new. he's got a grand exit strategy, but it all still comes down to timing and he evin after the end of his peach, when it may be time do this, so he doesn't even know. i think that the deeper you dig a hole in policy, the harder it is to climb yourself out. so when the fed is going to start this process, it is going extending losses of another decline of 24 points on the dow. right now 1.2 million people are on sprint mobile broadband. 31 are streaming a sales conference from the road. 154 are tracking shipments on a train. 33 are iming on a ferry. and 1300 are secretly checking email on vacation. to create a headwind for 2010. as it was a tailwind for 2009 and it's not just the fed, it's china, it's australia, it's other countries who are taking away the extraordinary monetary and fiscal policy that creates trouble in my opinion, where at least they headwind potential road block for the market in 2010. >> eric, i see you're spooked, you say, by the market that we've had recently. >> a little bit, most definitely. that was big change for me. the bernanke comment were a that's happening now. america's most dependable 3g network. bringing you the first and only wireless 4g network. right now get a free 3g/4g device for your laptop. sprint. the now network. deaf, hard-of-hearing and people with speech disabilities access www.sprintrelay.com.
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change but not today. sort of the indication of what he was going do but what spookd me is last week's more panicky type of selling. we all knew that greece was having problems and other countries in the eu we knew that the eu would deal with it at some level. it was more panicky selling. is that everything went all down at once. commodity went down. stocks went down. >> yeah.>> currencies went down. we got out of risk and went back into safehaven. that worries me because it was a change in tactic for investors. >> it was an out and out and sell everything. >> it was. >> even the classes that you thought would be protective measures -- yeah, exactly. peter, that's my question to you, do you want to start taking some chips off of the table on the china trade? in other words, everything china needs, iron, orr, steel, gold, food, water, et cetera, have we seen the best that the we've seen there or do you think that that move continues higher. >> middle of january you've definitely seen the best but once you saw china to make its moves sort of cooled things down
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and then this trade was going to take a rest. throughout the rest of this year, look out to 2011, that's where you want your money to be. you want your money where it is going to be best treated. that is in asia, that's in china, that's in india, that is in commodities. that's in nondollar assets. and on pullbacks, 10%, 15%, 20% saw in variety asset classes you want to take advantage of that, but in my opinion that the u.s. centric-based opinion companies will continue to have this overhang of fed policy unwinding, tax hikes coming in 2011 and a built-in roadblock to any recovery here. >> all right, leave it there. gentlemen, great conversation purchase appreciate your time tonight. eric, peter, good to see you, thank you. a new report today indicating that group got off it a decent start in 2010. cnbc's jane wells on the details on retail. details, retail, jane? >> reporter: ha, hey, maria, we've got some interesting data about january burks first let's talk about february.
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this snowstorm back east is really doing a number of retailers. weather transit international says 70% of the country will be blanketed in snow this weekend. that could cut projected sales growth for the month by more than hamp. now look at what nair telling us, target tells us it closed some stores on saturday and canceled deliveries and also costco telling us it closed 31 stores over the weekend, lost $20 million in sales. 29 stores are closed today. quote, you can never make it all up. census numbers on friday but new 60 minutes to trade in a very wintry new york, and there you can see the widely heldings. the financials are coming off a bit in the likes like jpmorgan and bank of america, which have boosted earlier in this session as we fail to hold at the flat line. now down 27 points on the dow jones industrial average. numbers coming in today showing that things while improving may had been a little mediocre in january after a pretty good holiday shopping season, mastercard spending pulse says sales improvement in january, while up, slowed partly due to tempered comparisons. on an unadjusted basis which they prefer, without auto, sales rose 3.6% from a year ago, but down 4.8% growth in december. but if you take out spending on gasoline, it turns out growth really didn't much happen at all. >> they've had a profound impact on the technology, seeing there, we're actually at relatively mixed today. intel with a good performance and maria said earlier the likes of research in motion and dell had a good session. >> simon, investors look for afon edge in their portfolio, my next guest says, think global. among his remedy for returns be, global technology companies. these john kalamos, at kalamos investments. john's firm has $32 billion in assets under management with all six of his funds outperforming the s&p 500 over the last
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actually. gasoline spending up 30% year to year over the last couple of months and blown out our total retail sales number so when you strip out gasoline still talking about maybe .3% growth for january and only about 2% growth in december. >> reporter: so while spending was up, a lot of it went to gasoline, and looking forward, deloitte's monthly measurement of consumer cash flow used to predict future spending that slipped for the second month in a row in january, as real wages decade. john, it's nice to have you on the program. welcome. >> well, thank you, maria. >> see you've dubbed the last decade, the lost decade. and yet you've been able to outperform the market in your funds. tell now what you attribute the outperformance to and where you want to be exposed to in the next five years. >> well, i think, like every markets, it's not just the last ten years, it's the -- you know i've been doing this almost 40 years now, it's every year. you're looking for opportunities. you're not just buying an index. ended up flat in the face of these higher energy prices, and speaking of the weather, guys, out here this weekend, it will get to 70 degrees. just saying. >> 70 degrees! >> that's swanky. >> she's trying to make us feel bad. >> yeah, she is. >> all right, jane, see you later. go get that bikini going. 45 minutes before the closing bell sounds on wall street. we've got the market right now volume on the low side in this weather, down three points on the dow jones industrials. up next the managing director of moody's investment group shows us why the debt you're not just riding the wave. what you're doing is looking for where there's opportunities in the market and taking advantage of those opportunities. we're in a very volatile period, obviously. we've been involved into periods before. i think that if you sit on the sidelines you end up missing a lot of those opportunities. >> let's talk about opportunities here. your overweight technology and you're overweight energy. do you think that we're going to see a flat market, but you want tok exposed to those areas and
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issues in europe may not be as severe as you might think. and then later, a conversation with noted market watcher, john kalamos, find out why he thinks that we'veded for a decade of slow growth. decade finding opportunities, nonetheless in that environment. and then after the bell, google make a move to tap into the world of high-speed broadband networking. looking at theities implications to help the turbo charge, their internet connections, that's at 4:00 p.m. eastern. but first the most active stocks on the new york stock exchange today. you like global. where, specifically, do you like global? which areas of the world do you want to be exposed to first of all? and then let's talk about sectors. >> yeah, there's obviously a lot more country risk. that's one of the things that's been going on in the last few weeks. so we need to be careful there. but it's not just going global. it's relate looking at global companies that get a lot of their revenues from outside the united states and other parts of the world. it's growth stocks. one of the opportunities that we're seeing are the valuations are still very attractive there and the fumes are very attractive. unlike financials, where there might be a lot of speculation, a lot of trading activity, but the fundamentals are very hard to determine at this point. we think the growth area, growth stocks, the fundamentals are very favorable here and they're priced very right so we've been
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focused on that area. >> so, let me just make sure i understand here because you're looking at specific stock names within technology that are u.s.-based but are multinational in nature, deriving much of their revenue and profitability from outside the u.s. >> in our u.s. portfolios, that is correct. in our global portfolios, we're also looking at companies that are headquarters in europe and japan and other parts of the world. >> okay. so in terms of technology, what areas of tech do you like? can you break it down in terms of where the growth is? i mean, mobility a major trend. what are your top holdings in tech? >> well, you know, we're looking at some the consumer product areas in technology. obviously, you know we've been holding apple for many, many years. >> but would you commit new capital top apple today? it's already had quite a run. >> well, you know, maria, we've not talking about day traders.
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i know that you have a lot of day traders your program. >> no, we want to look long term. absolutely you're a long-term thinker earn that's why we love having you on the program, john, but i'm wondering why $195 is a good entry level. not necessarily to flip it and get out of it immediately but if i put money into this at $195 and want to hold it for ten years is that a smart idea? >> well, we're not saying holding it for ten years. we're saying, hold it until the fundamentals tell us something different. this idea that there's a time frame to hold is not correct. we're saying right now the fundamentals, the cash flow analysis that we do make it very attractive. we got out of all of the technology stocks in late 1999. you know, when they were the favorites. >> what was it that you saw, john? that caused you -- i mean you really beat the market massively over the years. getting out of tech in 1999 which of course wasn't at its
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okay time for this week's "tick by tick." problem, obviously, persist in europeux over uncertainty over the sovereign debt there, and our next guest says that the situation has reached a trigger point. he's snowed in at home but joins us on the phone. jordan kotick has our technical strategy of barclays capital. good afternoon, to you. so it's just one chart today, jordan. >> caller: yeah, no problem, simon. i thack you're right on the money. given all of the speculations coming out of europe, concerning and after time we got out, we were highly criticized getting out of all of these great companies, but you know we're trying to buy great companies at great prices. not just be in a great company forever. >> yeah, well this is a very important point that you're making, john. i mean, let's talk about some the valuations that we're seeing in this market right now. for example, one of my favorite trades, one of my favorite investments is this look at resource. resource rich nations which is one of the reasonings that we're peek, it was in 2000-2001 where things started plummeting pun got out way before then. so what did you see that you didn't like? >> well, the valuation's just got too stretched at that point. it was not that they were not great companies back then. they were no longer great prices. the prices of stocks back then that we saw, it was very hard to justify. they would need a perfect environment going on, literally, for years and years to justify the current stock prices.
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greece, et cetera, that's important to look at the front-end the yield. if we look at european two-year yield you can see this market's been arranged for 12 month, 15 months. prop end of the ranges that 150 to 160 level. and the bottom end of the range is just about 1%, which is pretty much exactly where we are right now. >> so the advice is? >> caller: well, clearly if there is going to be any confidence in the market in anything coming out of europe is the question if the bond market would gain the kind of top-side seeing so much money moving into africa, brazil. the commodity's plays. do you think that the valuations are getting stretched there or do you still want to own those kinds of companies? >> yeah, you know, maria, you make a good point there. we are a bit concerned about the valuations being stretched there. but we're still in them and we're still watching them very closely. but you know, the commodity play and the energy play is also a hedge against the dollar being devalued here as well. so we're -- we're looking at in yield. so what we have to watch is bonds have been aggressively bent sings they peaked at 160 and the move down to 1%. you need to see those lows hold. if the market starts to get below 195 to 100 basis points you are going to break the range, get even more aggressive bid in the bond market and that would be a vote of nonconfidence from the market's. this is very important. >> do you see europe as the leading indicator here? that very carefully. but i think you bring up a very good point that we have been discussing as well, is whether some of these areas are being stretched. >> john, you're avoiding financials and consumers names. what's the story there? why do you want to avoid those areas? is there something specific that you expect these stocks are going to go down over the coming -- whatever time frame that you're looking at? >> you know, obviously financials have bounced back very, very well in here. but it's more of a speculative trading play.
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not just a correlation whether we heard from eric ross, he's a disorderly, slightly panicked market. you are don't think that you're just picking up on one end of the correlation? >> caller: no, simon, because remember temperatures the euro occurrence te happened to out in november, so when the euro started to fall and dollar cut its bid but at that time the stock market's were still relatively stabile. only started to correct about a couple of weeks later. so given the sensitivity in the fx market started by the euro, it tells us that the market problems had been coming, or motivated by what's going on it's not based on a lot of, you know, the underlying fundamentals. so we're a little bit nervous about that. you know in the financial areas we like asset managers rather than the large banks because the fundamentals still are not there. you know, we wrote in our piece, is it a -- bounce or are the fundamentals really driving this? and i think it's just more a hope, a speculation that things will get better. we'd rather be investing in across the pond. >> jordan, thank you very much. good luck with the digging. >> caller: thank you very much. >> see you next week. >> he gets to call in from home, huh? >> yeah, i thought about that today. >> moving on, from sovereign risk to sovereign reality my, next guest says investors need to differentiate the risks between spain, portugal and greece. he's pierre, he's managing director of moody's sovereign risk group. he joins us now in a "first on cnbc interview." sir, good to have you on the program. welcome. >> thank you. >> so moody's out, talking about these concerns growing over the areas where we're much more confident on the underlying fundamentals. and when we see cheap growth stocks out there, you know, it's all relative. i'd rather own that than a speculation that financials work in here. >> right. john, it is so nice to have you on the program. >> thank you. >> appreciate your insights today. thank you. >> thank you, maria. >> we'll see you soon, john calamos joining us. he doesn't seem too worried about europe. given that he's been investing.
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debt issues with spain, portugal, italy and of course greece. in response to that mead's says we need to differentiate month situations. you can differentiate for us. >> well, we can differentiate. we have different readings for spain, portugal and greece and we think putting all of those countries together is not a sound way to look at the risk. and subtitle to our report is contagion or confusion. and we think that the confusion. >> glass half full we were down 95 points earlier in the session. >> yes, glass half full. our matt nesto is looking at big companies and meanwhile they are tightening their budgets for 2010 for their current budget. 'o >> so tell me what the risk is first in greece. >> well, greece has a clearly -- a -- changeed. you restore credibility and now implement the plan but we think at the same time that the concerns about an imminent default is probably overstated and liquidity drawing out. so there is a painful process of adjustment but you need to let
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the government actually start implementing before rejudging. >> so how worried are you then about the risk of the default in greece, for example. >> well, we're not very worried that it would be an imminent default on greece. we have an a2 readings. our issue more long-term issue of ardjustments in a context of higher interest rate, an anemic coming growth and the difficulty to restore competitiveness. >> and you believe, based on your research that spain is actually in a much better place than portugal and greece is that right? >> oh, yeah, absolutely. absolutely. >> why. >> well, because spain first studied from a pretty stabile position at the beginning of the crisis. its debt metrics were pretty sound. and second thing is that there are a lot of headwinds. of course a number of agents who do have deleverage and it will cost. but at the same time as we are seeing the plan, the program has been announced by authorities. even if it implements parts
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actually to keep the debt -- which is an important part to judge -- rating. >> pierre, let's talk about the financing options. of course, we've got the eu leaders meeting in brussels. what will be discussed at that meeting? >> well, i suppose the first going to discuss is first to let first greece implement the plan and i think it's really what going to say. the second thing is that if do implement the plan indeed and stay committed on their ambitious plan and a problem in march, april, may, well, then they have some help but a number of sources. as you know the ecb in fact takes the debt, the greek government. and you may have some bilateral support. but it's not the central scenario, though. i think most likely that the european governments are going
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to say an ambitious plan, we have to start implementing it and of course you will benefit from that if you do that. >> is there a risk, though, that germany has to get involved and act as somewhat of a backstop for greece and that does create ripple effects throughout the euro zone. >> no, i think germany and france, the large countries, are very well difficulties and they all of course want to have a -- in the euro, so they will welcome back. belt tightening on the household level has been the norm lately but what about on the corporate level? matt nesto has new straps of how big businesses are spend their money. >> reporter: yeah a snowy day e-mail from the s&p index's strategist, index analyst and take a look at where we are, about 3/4 of the way through earnings season. things generally have been coming in better than expected on that front, but as far as the market performance, you could provide a backstop. i then is the government implement. if does implement the plan but that's not central scenario. i think at this stage the greek government going to implement the plan, at least part of the plan. >> so you would recommend that investors buy into greece right now. >> well, we don't make any recommendation says of sort. >> pierre, good to have you on the program. we so appreciate you're time today. >> thank you. >> pierre kailleaux from see, it certainly has not been a great performer, down about 7% during that period of time. so when you look at, as howard does, at some of these 10k filing, 10q filings and find out how these companies are spending their money it's actually very telling in terms of what they think about the future and how that's going to apply to the recovery. so three key areas jump out. in terms of buybacks, he points out that the absolute dollar purchase levels are up about 50%. we're almost even to where we were in the fourth quarter of
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moody's. but on the volume, we traded 718 million shares today. that's about average, isn't it, maria? that's not unreasonable low, not panic selling day like recently but not bad volume overall as we move higher. >> it's okay. i mean, volume was so much stronger a few years ago. now the average, you are right, is under a billion shares at this time of the day. we'll see about that. up next how smaller financial services companies are cashing in right now as bigger players retrench in the industry p we'll talk to the head of '08, but still 66% below the levels that we were at the high watermark in 2007. we move onto dividends. a lot of dividend news lately. in fact, overwhelmingly positive. look at that statistic. 47 to 2. that's when you throw in the towel, folks, if you are getting beaten that badly. and then lastly, he took a look at cash, in terms of it's place on the balance sheet and there is more cash and less short-term investments. it's actual up 9% from the third quarter. so just taking a look at a stifle nicole aus about that. couple of dividend declarers and hikers here today, even this, is a mixed reaction in the marketplace here today. wind ham with that big tripling and strong earnings but eog, for example, they ratzed their dividend very strongly but their earnings weren't there and the stock got pounded. maria, back to you. >> all right, matt, thanks so much. we've got the short break and then the closing countdown after this break. >> after that, is apple the new microsoft? find out apple is indeed focusing on strategy rather than products when it comes to raising the stakes against its rivals.
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there's federal hall down on wall street and theres a look at the white house in washington. washington, d.c., sets an all-time record for total season snowfall. 54.9 inches of snow have fallen in washington, an all-time record, versus the last time that we had that kind of snow which was back in 1988, at 54.4 inches of snowfall. snow is coming down. let's take a look at some of the action on wall street, meanwhile inside, where we had the widely helds trading mostly higher in financial services. certainly. and a look at some the dow components and what is moving this market today, as you can
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see, oil's are lower -- in fact the drugs and the oils are the laggers today and the financial services are actually in the lead. making the market, have a lot of moves but not too far of where it began on the day, flat on the session. >> i will speak to steve grasso later in the financials and in which they bounced on their 200-day moving average, so he says. the parent of stifel nicolaus today reported a 54% surge in fourth quarter profits to $24.7 million for the year. the company earns nearly $76 million. joining us now in a "cnbc exclusive" with more color on their quarter is stifel nicolaus, financial chairman and ceo, mr. ronald kruszewski. thank you very much for joining us. you've broken the revenue, a good reaction on the stock today. what's driving it at the moment? is it those 56 private client offices that you bought from ubs? >> well, those certainly help e simon. i think that for us, we're the
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beneficiary of the turmoil on wall street. we just -- this marked our 14th
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